Microsoft co-founder, Bill Gates, has warned that the transition into the artificial intelligence era could become one of the most turbulent periods in human history.
This is as he noted that governments are not doing enough to prepare for widespread job losses and other disruptions that could accompany the technology.
Gates gave the warning in a more than 6,000-word essay titled “The turbulent AI era is here. The choices we make now are critical,” published on his Gates Notes website on Wednesday.
He said AI could either become a major force for reducing inequality or deepen the divide between the rich and poor, depending on how governments, businesses and societies respond to its rapid development.
“In terms of equity, AI will either be the greatest equalizer ever invented, or the worst source of injustice.
“The challenge is monumental. Even under the best circumstances, the transition to this new AI era will be one of the most turbulent times in human history,” he wrote.
Gates said the world was already falling behind in preparing for the changes ahead, arguing that leaders, experts and communities had yet to adequately confront the scale of the disruption.
“Unfortunately, right now we are not preparing for it. I don’t see evidence that leaders, experts, and communities are confronting the challenges adequately. There is no plan to ease the entry into the AI era,” he stated.
The billionaire philanthropist said the speed at which AI can be deployed makes it fundamentally different from previous technological revolutions.
“When the PC came along, it took 20 years to significantly change how we worked because the software had to be developed, the price had to come down, and people had to learn how to use the tools and incorporate them into their business processes.
“AI, on the other hand, runs on the devices we already have, and it uses natural language. We don’t have to adapt to it because it can adapt to us. It can watch the same training video that is used to train human workers and learn from existing data,” he hinted.
‘Many jobs will disappear forever’a
Gates identified widespread job losses as one of three major risks associated with the AI transition, warning that the effects could be structural rather than temporary.
“Many jobs will disappear forever,” he wrote.
He said entry- and mid-level workers were particularly vulnerable, while the new jobs created by AI would often require skills that could take years to acquire.
He noted, “AI may not reach this level, but its impact will not go away with an economic cycle. The jobs at most risk are entry- and mid-level, and the new jobs being created will mostly require skills that take many years to learn.”
Gates said the disruption would extend beyond traditional technology-related occupations.
“Jobs in sales and customer support (online and over the phone), software engineering, and paralegal work may be among the first affected, but the disruption will reach much further as AI takes on tasks that today still require trained workers: things like assessing loan applications, doing data analysis, and even triaging patients,” he declared.
He also warned that the impact would eventually reach blue-collar workers as robotics advances.
“I think ‘smart’ robots will begin to compete with people on some physical tasks—in the construction and hospitality industries, for example—by the end of the decade,” he said.
According to Gates, the combination of AI and robotics could accelerate the replacement of human workers as companies compete to cut costs.
“Market forces will make adoption go faster and faster and, unless we intervene, there will be fewer good jobs available and the benefits will accrue to a small group,” he wrote.
He said he was particularly concerned about young people entering the workforce.
“I’m especially worried about young people, who will enter a workforce with fewer entry-level openings,” Gates said.
He added that the biggest change would come once AI became sufficiently reliable to operate without human supervision.
“The biggest shift for workers will happen when AI provides nearly error-free work. At that point, it will be able to function on its own without a human checking in on it, and companies will have every economic incentive to let it,” the Microsoft founder asserted.
Gates said that development would force societies to reconsider the relationship between employment, income and economic security.
He posited, “This will lead to a fundamental change in how we think about work, income, and economic security.
“How will an economy that’s been built around employment operate if fewer people are working, or if many people are working fewer hours?”
AI risks extend beyond jobs
Gates also warned that AI would give individuals and organisations greater capacity to cause harm, pointing to cyberattacks, fraud, disinformation, deepfakes, surveillance and bioterrorism.
“The resources needed to make an attack are going down significantly and we haven’t been able to separate those abilities from benign usage,” he wrote.
He said critical infrastructure could become increasingly vulnerable.
“Think about the infrastructure that will be vulnerable: hospitals, financial institutions, water systems, power grids, systems for managing government benefits. When these institutions are attacked, it’s the patients, customers, and benefits recipients who stand to lose,” he further noted.
Gates also raised concerns about the possibility of increasingly powerful AI systems eventually behaving in ways their creators did not intend.
“The technology is improving faster than anyone expected and in surprising ways, and as the models become more powerful, they could begin to act against our interests and we could lose control,” he wrote.
But Gates did not present the future of AI solely in negative terms, arguing that the technology could also accelerate progress in healthcare, agriculture, education, clean energy and government services if deployed properly.
“With its ability to synthesize knowledge from every scientific field, AI can accelerate innovation in the world’s toughest technical challenges: providing reliable clean energy for everyone, combating climate change, growing enough food, eradicating diseases, and more,” he said.
He also pointed to potential benefits for poorer countries, particularly in agriculture.
“In most low-income countries, farmers don’t get reliable weather forecasts or advice on what seeds to plant, how to protect their crops and livestock from disease, or how to improve their soil.
“Using AI, low-income farmers will soon be able to get better advice about all these things than even the richest farmers get today and increase their output substantially,” Gates wrote
He said AI could similarly expand access to healthcare and education while reducing bureaucratic burdens.
“Taken together, the advances in all these areas could make everyday life easier, more affordable, and less constrained by a person’s income or connections,” he said.
However, he stressed that such benefits would not happen automatically.
The philanthropist stated, “In all these areas, the operative word is ‘can’—AI can improve life for people at every income level. But it won’t do that automatically.”
He argued that governments and philanthropic organisations would have to ensure that the benefits were not concentrated among wealthy populations.
Gates calls for global AI plan
Gates said the scale of the transformation required governments to establish new national and international institutions capable of dealing with AI’s effects across multiple sectors.
“The highest priority is a monumental task: creating a domestic and international framework for dealing with AI.
“None of our current institutions were designed to handle a technology that spreads so fast and touches so many parts of our lives. So we’ll need to make new ones,” he wrote.
He said AI would affect national security, employment, education, taxation, energy, elections, public health, financial systems, law enforcement and transportation, among other areas.
Gates called for countries to work together on an international framework, arguing that AI risks would not stop at national borders.
“This is why an international organization will need to be built in parallel.
“We do not have the luxury of moving slowly,” he said.
Gates said the process should involve not only technology companies and governments but workers, educators, community leaders and others affected by the transition.
“This unprecedented technology demands an unprecedented global response.
“If we get it right, the payoff for humanity will be phenomenal and the world will be a more equitable place,” he wrote.
